تحلیل آینده نگرانه از تقاضای اجتماعی ورود به آموزش عالی از دیدگاه جمعیت شناختی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار موسسه تحقیقات جمعیت کشور، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار موسسه تحقیقات جمعیت کشور تهران، ایران

10.22034/emes.2022.552074.2376

چکیده

هدف : شناخت دقیق از سطح و روند تعداد و سهم نسبی جمعیت 21-17 ساله واقع در سن آموزش عالی در 15 سال گذشته (1400-1385) و ترسیم سیمای آینده میزان تقاضا برای آموزش عالی در این گروه سنی تا سال 1415 بر اساس سناریوهای مختلف
روش پژوهش : برای برآورد تقاضای آتی کنکور از روش نرخ مشارکت استفاده و با رویکرد سناریو نویسی به سبک دیتور نرخ مشارکت، با سناریو های ثبات، رشد، افول و نوسان تخمین زده شد.
 یافته‌ها:‌ نتایج نشان داد در سناریو ثبات، نرخ مشارکت با شیب بسیار ملایمی افزایش یافته و افزایش تقاضای کنکور در این سناریو بیشتر متاثر از افزایش جمعیت در معرض می­باشد. درسناریو نوسان فروض سناریو افول با شدت کمتری برقرار بوده که منجر می­شود تا حدود سال 1409 نرخ مشارکت کم شود اما با سیاست گذاری مناسب و تغییر وضعیت اشتغال و ساختار صنعت به مرور زمان از سال 1410 نرخ مشارکت با شیب ملایمی افزایش یابد.
نتیجه‌گیری : میزان تقاضا برای کنکور از حدود یک میلیون نفر در بدترین حالت تا حدود 4/2 میلیون نفر در شرایط ایده آل اقتصادی و اجتماعی برای سال 1415 متغیر خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Future analysis of the higher education social demand from a demographic perspective

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyedeh Zahra Kalantari Banadaki 1
  • Nader Moti Haghshenas 2
1 Assistant professor of National Institute for population research, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant professor of National Institute for population research, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Objective: Gaining accurate knowledge of the level and trend of the relative share of the population aged 17-27 years old in the last 15 years old (2006-2021) and predicting the future image of social demand for higher education in this age group until 1415 based on different scenarios.
Methods: To estimate the future demand for higher education, the participation rate was estimated with Dator's Four Generic Scenario Archetypes method
Results: The results showed that the participation rate increased with a very gentle slope in the stability scenario. The increase in the demand for entrance exams in this scenario is more affected by the increase in the exposed population. In the fluctuation scenario, the assumptions of the decline scenario are less intense, leading to a decrease in the participation rate around 2030, but with proper policy-making and change in the employment situation and the industry's structure over time from 2031, the participation rate increases slightly.
Conclusion: The demand for higher education will vary from about one million people in the worst case to about 2.4 million people in ideal economic and social conditions for 2036.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords: participation rate
  • demographic structure
  • social demand
  • futures study
  • higher education
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