بررسی رابطة تقاضای آموزش عالی با شاخص‌های اشتغال در ایران در دهة هشتاد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه گلستان، گلستان، ایران

2 مسئول گروه پژوهشی مطالعات اجتماعی مرکز تحقیقات سازمان سنجش آموزش کشور، تهران، ایران

10.22034/emes.2022.550408.2362

چکیده

هدف: مسئلة این پژوهش بررسی رابطة بعضی از شاخص­های تقاضای آموزش عالی با شاخص­های اشتغال در دهة هشتاد (1390-1381) با هدف شناخت تقاضای آموزش عالی در ایران بود.
روش پژوهش: پژوهش از جهت روش از نوع تحلیل ثانویه با حوزة تحلیل اجتماعی محسوب می­شود. به این منظور از داده­های آزمون سراسری ورود به دانشگاه­ها و سرشماری نفوس و مسکن استفاده شد. واحد تحلیل استان است.
یافته‌ها: یافته­های پژوهش نشان می­دهد بین شاخص میانگین تقاضا با میانگین بیکاری در استان­های کشور رابطه­ای مستقیم برقرار است. همچنین بررسی روند رشد نشان داد که بین نرخ رشد بیکاری با نرخ رشد تقاضا در استان­های کشور رابطه­ای مستقیم و بین نرخ رشد تقاضا با نرخ رشد مشارکت اقتصادی رابطه­ای معکوس برقرار است. در این پژوهش برای اولین بار شاخصی با عنوان تقاضای تأخیری (تکرار شرکت در کنکور) بررسی شد. یافته­ها نشان داد که بین تقاضای تأخیری با شاخص­های اشتغال رابطه­ای معکوس قابل مشاهده است. به این معنی که هر چه بیکاری در استان­ها بیشتر بوده تکرار شرکت در کنکور (به ویژه برای زنان) بیشتر بوده و هر چه نرخ مشارکت اقتصادی بیشتر بوده، تکرار شرکت در کنکور کمتر شده است. مقایسه یافته­ها نشان می­دهد در دهة هشتاد نسبت شرکت کنندگان زن به مرد در مقایسه با سال­های قبل بیشتر شده که بخشی از آن به علت انصراف مردان بوده است.     
نتیجه‌گیری: هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر کمک به شناخت بیشتر تقاضای آموزش عالی در ایران بود. یافته­های پژوهش نشان دهندة ابعاد تازه ای از تقاضای آموزش عالی است و مؤید آن است که آزمون سراسری، فراتر از یک آزمون آموزشی، دارای ابعاد گسترده و عمیق اجتماعی و اقتصادی است. مباحث مطرح شده، لزوم انجام پژوهش‌های بیشتر در این باره را یادآور می‌شود. از جنبة کاربردی نیز شناخت هر چه کامل­تر این پدیده، شرط لازم برای کارآمدی هر نوع سیاست­گذاری، قانون گذاری و برنامه­ ریزی در این زمینه است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Relationship between Demand of Higher Education and Employment Indicators in Iran in the 1980s

نویسندگان [English]

  • Korosh Gholami Kotenaee 1
  • Kianoush Mohammadi Rouzbahani 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Social Sciences, Golestan Universit, Golestan, Iran
2 Head of Social Studies Research Group, Research Center of the Assessment National Organization for Educational Testing, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Objective: The problem of this research was to investigate the relationship between some indicators of higher education demand and employment indicators in the 1980s (1381-1390) with the aim of knowing the demand for higher education in Iran.
Methods: In terms of method, the research is considered to be of the secondary analysis type with the field of social analysis. For this purpose, data from the national university entrance exam and the population and housing census were used. It is the analysis unit of the province.
Results: The findings of the research show that there is a direct relationship between the average demand index and the average unemployment in the provinces of the country. Also, the analysis of the growth trend showed that there is a direct relationship between the growth rate of unemployment and the growth rate of demand in the provinces of the country, and there is an inverse relationship between the growth rate of demand and the growth rate of economic participation. In this research, for the first time, an index called delayed demand (repetition of entrance exams) was investigated. The findings showed that there is an inverse relationship between late demand and employment indicators. This means that the higher the unemployment in the provinces, the higher the repetition of participation in the entrance exam (especially for women) and the higher the rate of economic participation, the lower the repetition of the entrance examination. The comparison of the findings shows that in the eighties, the ratio of female to male participants increased compared to previous years, which was partly due to the withdrawal of men.
Conclusion: The main goal of this research was to help to better understand the demand for higher education in Iran. The findings of the research show new dimensions of the demand for higher education and confirm that the national exam, beyond an educational exam, has broad and deep social and economic dimensions. The discussed issues remind us of the need to conduct more research in this regard. From the practical point of view, knowing this phenomenon as fully as possible is a necessary condition for the efficiency of any kindof policy, legislation and planning in this field.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords: entrance exam
  • national exam
  • demand for higher education
  • employm

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مطالعات اندازه گیری و ارزشیابی آموزشی
دوره 12، شماره 39
مهر 1401
صفحه 155-180

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